Making up Scary Stories About Guns

Well, this had to happen. I've been ignoring the anti-gun crowd for a long time now...and they've generally been pretty quiet of late. But here comes another fun study designed to scare the bejabbers out of the typical parent and cause them to reach for their telephone to call their elected representatives and demand that guns be eliminated forthwith.

1.7 million kids live in homes with loaded guns
Survey: Alabama, Alaska top U.S. for unsecured firearms
Associated Press
Updated: 11:24 a.m. ET Sept. 6, 2005
ATLANTA - About 1.7 million U.S. children live in homes that have loaded and unlocked guns, according to what is described as the first comprehensive survey of gun storage in homes across the country.

OK, let's take a moment here. The story is that 1.7 million kids live in homes where there are loaded and unsecured firearms in the USA. That's bad, right? I mean, kids should not be in homes with loaded firearms, should they? Kids find those things and shoot each other, after all. Well they do. We hear about at least a couple times a year.

I'm not trying to be flippant. Kids do shoot themselves and each other in their homes with loaded guns that they find, and that's horrible. The parents should be more responsible than that. They should be held criminally responsible when they leave loaded guns laying around where their children can find them.

But let's continue - there is much more to examine here:

The study, published Tuesday in the journal Pediatrics, found that 2.5 percent of children live in homes with loaded and unsecured firearms. Estimates from the early 1990s had put the percentage at 10 percent. The new results suggest a decline, but that doesn’t mean there’s cause for celebration, said Catherine Okoro, a study author.

“That’s still too many children to be put at risk,” said Okoro, an epidemiologist with the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

"The new results suggest a decline..." From 10 percent to 2.5 percent? Hell, yeah, that's a decline!

But Catherine Okoro, an epidemiologist (that's a person who identified diseases and tracks their vectors, folks, not an expert in firearms, children's injuries, injuries from firearms or anything of the sort), thinks that still - too many children are being put "at risk." The fact that nothing happened to the great majority of them means nothing to her - just that they should not be put 'at risk'.

Researchers said they aren’t certain why some states reported higher rates than others, but they believe people living in rural communities are most likely to have loaded guns in or around the house.

That wouldn’t explain why Alabama is No. 1, however, said Jim McVay of the Alabama Department of Public Health.

“We have a hunting tradition in the Deep South, but there’s no excuse for having loaded guns in the house,” said McVay, director of the department’s Bureau of Health Promotion & Chronic Disease.

Jim is a clever guy. How interesting that he states the obvious - that you don't need a loaded gun in your house to be a hunter - and neglects to mention that many people keep loaded guns in their homes for self-defense. In that case, an unloaded gun is a stick. But hey, we can see which side his bread is buttered on. Nice going, Jim. Divert that attention and keep it on message. Guns are bad, n'Kay?

About 1,400 children are killed by firearms each year, according to CDC estimates. It’s not known how many of those are killed by guns left around the house, the researchers said.

Well, now, here we go! Some concrete information to deal with. 1,400 children per year killed by firearms, right? That's bad, right? Practically an epidemic - we'd better get busy fixing this problem, right? Ban the guns! Ban the guns! Save the children! Save the children!

Um, wait a minute. CDC estimates? Hmmm. There should be a way to check those numbers, right? I mean, can common old Wigwam Q. Public check with the CDC and get the same information? Data should be available to make sure that the author of this story is telling the truth, right? Not that I don't trust them or anything.

So...

http://webappa.cdc.gov/sasweb/ncipc/mortrate10_sy.html

Go there. Try this yourself, folks.

The most recent info is from 2002. And if you put in the following parameters, you get the 1,400 number consistant with the story I'm quoting:

INTENT: All Intents
CAUSE: Firearm
REGION: USA
YEAR: 2002
RACE: ALL
HISPANIC: ALL
SEX: BOTH
SELECT AGE GROUPS: <1 to 17

Number of deaths: 1,443.

Seems like the reporter was right, right?

But let's take a moment. Do you think that many 17 year olds are the sort that find a gun in the house, point it at their noggins, and pull the trigger to see what happens? Or is it more likely that very young kids are the ones in real danger of injuring themselves without meaning to?

So, just for the sake of scientific inquiry, I reduced the upper age to 12.

I got 240. And that's still from 'All Causes'.

I then changed from 'All Causes' to 'Unintentional'. Know what I got?

42. Undetermined? 5, but below the level of statistical accuracy.

That's nationwide. And that's for 2002. And that's for ALL firearm deaths - we don't know how many of those were from loaded firearms kept unsecured in the child's home. The data suggests, remember, that the trend is downward. From 10% in the early 1990's to 2.5% today. And our numbers are from 2002. I wonder what the numbers would be for 2004 if they were available. Lower, perhaps? Seems that the data may suggest that.

Folks, I'm not trying to say that guns are good, or that you should love them or that you should go out and buy one. I would not suggest that people keep loaded guns in their house where kids can get at them - bad idea. I own guns, and I keep them loaded in my home. But I don't have children. If I did, I'd do something else.

And yes, I think it is horrible that 42 children under 12 die each year in the USA from accidental shootings. I think we as a nation should work to stop it. By education, by prosecuting parents who allow their young children access to loaded and unlocked firearms, and by making it easier to get and use gun safes and gun locks.

But the point of the news story was to scare - and more, it was to scare parents into demanding a new round of gun control. To control this horrible epidemic.

The problem is, the problem is going away on its own. And the numbers given in the article are pumped up - not inaccurate, just misleading. The inference is that 1,400 kids are blasting their brains out with unlocked and loaded firearms that they find in Daddy's closet each year in the USA - come on, even if you're against personal firearm ownership, you can agree that's the idea, right? The problem is, it just isn't true.

The fact is, your kid is more likely BY FAR to die in a motor vehicle accident. Slightly more likely to die by firearm (all causes) than poisoning. Twice as likely to die from suffocation.

http://webappa.cdc.gov/sasweb/ncipc/leadcaus10.html

No child should die. No parent should fail to protect their child from every danger that they can detect and do something about. Guns are the least of your worries - almost literally. And you can do something about that if you wish - don't have guns in your house - or lock them up and keep them unloaded.

And leave me alone, OK? I'm not the problem here.

Kiss, Kiss, Bang, Bang,

Wiggy